Modeling PV Production with Machine Learning

Challenge

For small photovoltaic systems (<30kWp), CKW currently only measures the energy fed into its grid. This creates a gap in understanding the actual energy production and self-consumption of these systems. The objective of this challenge is to bridge that gap by developing a machine learning model that can accurately estimate total energy production and self-consumption.

Develop a machine learning model to estimate the energy production of small photovoltaic (PV) systems (<30kWp) using feed-in data, weather information, and egid data. The goal is to enable innovative and intelligent grid- and market-oriented solar energy solutions.

Data

  • CKW’s grid includes approximately 9,600 PV systems smaller than 30kWp without production measurement.
  • Participants will work with:
    • Time series energy data
    • Weather data (provided by Meteomatics)
    • EGID data
  • The dataset is preprocessed with basic feature engineering, allowing participants to focus on building the best possible model.
  • Both traditional machine learning approaches and advanced neural networks, such as LSTMs, are encouraged.

Why it matters for CKW

This challenge has significant real-world implications:

  • Starting next year, PV production will be limited to 70% of the panel’s peak output as per new regulations.
  • Accurate production estimates will help:
    • Quantify energy losses due to these limits.
    • Support the creation of innovative, market-oriented solar energy products.
    • Enhance CKW’s ability to make solar energy more attractive and efficient for customers.

Source Code

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Contact

Enrique Romano, CKW